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Wednesday, 16 September 2026

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Arabica coffee hits 10-week low on Brazil weather and exports

· Investing.com Forex

Coffee prices today, September 11, 2026

World coffee prices continue to show positive upward trends for robusta, while arabica prices have reversed course and are falling.

Robusta coffee prices rose by $82/ton for November 2026 delivery, reaching $3,554/ton with a trading volume of over 15,600 contracts. This upward trend in robusta prices stems from concerns about short-term supply constraints and short-covering by investors.

One leading cause is believed to be concerns about heavy rains in Vietnam's main robusta coffee-growing region causing flooding and affecting the coffee crop. Prolonged heavy rains in Vietnam's largest coffee-producing area have caused flooding, landslides, and other dangerous weather phenomena, disrupting and impacting the coffee harvest.

Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange (USA) reversed course and plummeted across all maturities. Arabica coffee futures prices fell to their lowest level in 10 weeks, partly due to favorable prospects for next year's crop in Brazil – the world's leading producer. Brazil's new harvest is almost complete, and the market is shifting its attention to the outlook for the 2027 crop. The new crop has started favorably, with abundant rainfall supporting the flowering process of the coffee plants.

The decline in arabica coffee prices is also due to short-term profit-taking pressure from financial institutions and more favorable weather forecasts for the upcoming harvest in Brazil.

Inventories of certified coffee on the exchange also edged up from their lowest level in 26 years, thanks to additional supply from Brazil. Arabica stocks on the ICE exchange reached 220,452 bags as of September 9, up from 218,838 bags the day before. At the same time last year, stocks stood at 685,945 bags, according to traders.

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe), Brazil exported a record 3.82 million 60kg bags of green coffee beans in August, a 31.7% increase compared to the same month last year. Of this total, arabica exports increased by 25.7% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports rose by 53.6% to 953,592 bags.

Cecafe highlighted the positive results of robusta exports, while also noting a more abundant supply of arabica as coffee was brought to market after the harvest was delayed due to rain. Total coffee exports, including instant and roasted coffee, reached 4.16 million bags, while export value reached $1.33 billion. Both were record levels for August.

Domestic coffee prices increased slightly by 200-300 VND/kg, fluctuating between 95,200 and 95,800 VND/kg.

The upward trend on the two global markets is providing additional support for the domestic market. In the short term, coffee prices in the Central Highlands may fluctuate around 95,000–96,000 VND/kg. Actual prices at individual dealers may vary depending on bean quality, moisture content, impurity levels, transaction volume, and payment method.

However, the decrease in purchase prices in some regions indicates that businesses and agents remain cautious after the sharp increase. Therefore, the possibility of a further sharp increase depends on developments on the London exchange, exchange rates, supply from Brazil, and the delivery demand of export businesses.

The conflicting movements on international futures markets reflect a clear tug-of-war in investor sentiment. The fact that world robusta coffee prices have maintained a slight upward trend is providing support, preventing domestic bulk coffee prices from fluctuating too sharply.

In the short term, domestic coffee prices are likely to remain stable or fluctuate within a narrow range around 95,000 - 96,000 VND/kg. The domestic market is unlikely to experience a strong breakout as Vietnam's new crop supply approaches, leading purchasing agents to maintain a cautious attitude. Export businesses and coffee growers need to closely monitor USD exchange rate fluctuations and profit-taking selling pressure on the New York exchange to develop appropriate trading strategies.

According to the World and Vietnam Newspaper, at the close of overnight trading on September 10th, robusta coffee prices continued to rise on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange. The November 2026 delivery contract increased by $82, trading at $3,554 per ton. The January 2027 delivery contract increased by $48, trading at $3,510 per ton. Trading volume was average high.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange reversed course and fell, with the December 2026 contract declining by 3.9 cents to trade at 288.15 cents/lb. The March 2027 contract fell by 4.2 cents to trade at 279.45 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Pepper prices today, September 11, 2026

Domestic pepper prices fluctuate around 137,000 – 141,000 VND/kg.

Domestic pepper prices remained stable, with transactions on September 11th as follows:

In Dak Lak province, the price of pepper today is being purchased at 140,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,500 VND.

In Gia Lai province, the price of pepper today is 137,000 VND/kg, an increase of 2,000 VND.

In the Dak Nong area ( Lam Dong province), the price of pepper today is being purchased at 141,000 VND/kg, an increase of 4,000 VND.

In the Ba Ria - Vung Tau (Ho Chi Minh City) area, the price of pepper today is 137,000 VND/kg, an increase of 2,500 VND.

In Dong Nai province, the price of pepper today is 137,000 VND/kg, an increase of 2,000 VND; in Binh Phuoc province, the price of pepper today is also being purchased at 137,000 VND/kg, an increase of 2,000 VND.

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), based on ITC data, in July 2026, the US imported 7,315 tons of pepper, worth $57.3 million, a decrease of 3.0% in volume but an increase of 2.1% in value compared to June 2026.

Vietnam continued to be the largest supplier with 5,898 tons, down 6.0% from the previous month and accounting for 80.6% of total US imports. Meanwhile, imports from India reached 700 tons, up 7.4%; Indonesia reached 409 tons, up 23.2%; and Brazil reached 136 tons, up 63.9% compared to June.

Compared to July 2025, total US pepper imports increased by 6.9%, with imports from Vietnam increasing by 9.4%. For the first seven months of 2026, the US imported 54,878 tons of pepper, worth $417.0 million, an increase of 4.9% in volume and 4.8% in value compared to the same period in 2025.

In terms of market share, Vietnam supplied 44,119 tons, a sharp increase of 22.2% and accounting for 80.4% of total imports, thus continuing to maintain its dominant position in the US market. Conversely, imports from India reached 4,265 tons, a decrease of 17.3%; Indonesia reached 2,819 tons, a decrease of 59.3%; while Brazil reached 2,186 tons, an increase of 6.8%.

Today's export rice prices (September 11, 2026)

On the export market, Indian and Thai rice prices both increased last week, while Vietnamese rice prices remained unchanged compared to the previous week, according to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA).

In Vietnam, the export price of 5% broken white rice ranges from 440 to 445 USD/ton.

Export prices for Jasmine rice fell by $10/ton to $534-$538/ton, a decrease of $4/ton.

The price of fragrant rice with 5% broken grains increased to 470-480 USD/ton, a sharp decrease of 20 USD/ton.

According to Reuters, Indian export rice prices continued to rise this week, reaching a one-year high, supported by tight supply and concerns about summer crop yields due to lower-than-normal rainfall. Indian parboiled rice with 5% broken grains was offered at $371-377 per ton this week, up from $369-375 per ton last week. Meanwhile, Indian white rice with 5% broken grains was priced at $368-373 per ton. In Thailand, traders reported that the price of 5% broken grains rose to $488 per ton, from $483-485 per ton last week.

The story of the import and export market.

Crude oil prices rose more than 6% in Thursday's trading session (September 10), with both types of oil surpassing $100 a barrel, as attacks on shipping surged to their highest level since the war in Iran began, raising concerns about further disruptions to already tight supplies.

Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices have surpassed $100 a barrel as Middle East tensions continue to escalate. At the close of trading on September 10th, Brent crude rose 6.34% to $107.63 per barrel, and US crude oil prices crossed $100 per barrel for the first time since May, with WTI crude increasing 6.69% to $102.48 per barrel. Both benchmark crudes reached their highest levels since May 19th and recorded their strongest gains in nearly two months.

In the morning trading session on September 11th, the market continued its strong upward trend, with Brent crude oil prices remaining stable at $107.63 per barrel and US WTI crude oil prices rising 1.63% to $104.15.

The market rallied as US-Iran tensions escalated this week. Since the beginning of the month, prices have risen by more than 18% as investors prepare for the possibility of prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

According to the Wall Street Journal , US officials said that top White House advisers have discussed with President Donald Trump the possibility of the war lasting through January 2029. This information contradicts Trump's statement on September 9th, that the fighting would end immediately after the midterm elections. For months, he has repeatedly asserted that the conflict was nearing its end, but fighting has subsequently escalated.

This month, Iran has repeatedly attempted to attack U.S. warships. In retaliation, the U.S. military has destroyed at least eight Iranian oil tankers since September 5th. This week, Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen also attacked several energy facilities and other targets in Saudi Arabia.

Diesel fuel prices in the US have recently been hitting record highs, currently exceeding $6 per gallon. Gasoline prices also reached a three-month high this week.

Daan Struyven, head of global commodity research at Goldman Sachs, believes that escalating US-Iran conflict is increasing the risk of oil prices exceeding $120 a barrel.

Meanwhile, trading advisor Andrei Constantin at TFP Software FZCO suggests that the physical market could tighten further if oil volumes transported via sea lanes continue to decline, conflicts escalate, or energy infrastructure is threatened.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-nong-san-hom-nay-11-9-2026-gia-ca-phe-kho-but-pha-manh-tieu-viet-giu-vi-tri-ap-dao-tai-my-gia-dau-dong-loat-vuot-100-usd-thung-cao-nhat-4-tuan-442173.html