Thursday, 29 October 2026
Independent coverage of global markets, trade and finance
On the Fed, it's tough to view the current set-up of still elevated printed inflation and a Fed on hold as all that protective. We glean from this enough to validate the move back above 5% on the 10yr. On the ECB, forwa…
From better fiscal headroom to surprise income tax hikes, this is how UK Chancellor John Healey's first budget could surprise investors
Barring a Brazilian-style election surprise, the Fed should leave rates unchanged. It seems the US 10yr is waiting to tick this off before it deviates too much from 5%. Meanwhile, the UK 10yr yield should ease lower aft…
This past weekend, Adam Taggart and I discussed what happens to Treasury bond yields when the United States enters a military conflict. The conventional wisdom is reflexive and tidy. A conflict triggers a flight to safe…
The British financial landscape is navigating a challenging period as the gilt market experiences heightened stress, with rising interest rates and market turbulence impacting the nation's financial instruments and fund…
Imagine someone looking into their crystal ball and telling you at the beginning of October that the coming September CPI data would be higher than expected, and producer prices (PPI) would rise 1.3% for the month, well…
The RBA deputy governor has identified inflation as the "one big problem" still facing Australia's economy.
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Millions of Americans will move forward with home purchases this year, despite mortgage rates that won’t budge from their perch above 6% and home prices that continue to break records. Some of these buyers are banking o…
The Consumer Price Index hit 3.7% in September – the latest sign that inflation remains a problem that isn't going away.
The size and persistence of inflation post-COVID-19 was among the largest problems the U.S. economy has faced in decades. The rise in house prices was a major contributor to this inflationary episode. Understanding this…
With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two decades.
Most investors are still focused on the stock market, especially technology and AI stocks. But over the past few days, the more interesting move has been happening in bonds. U.S. Treasury yields have moved sharply highe…
The Relationship Every Gold Trader Should Understand Why Falling Real Yields Continue to Be One of Gold's Most Powerful Bullish Catalysts "Gold does not compete with stocks. Gold does not compete with bonds. Gold compet…
📘 Why Manual Forex Trading Is Officially Dead — And AI Will Bury It in 2026 ________________________________________ 1. 🚨 Executive Summary Manual FX trading is not merely declining—it is entering its terminal phase. As…
Rising US long-term interest rates have become the defining issue in global financial markets. But why have they climbed so fast? Yields have now surpassed the expected return on stocks for the first time in 20 months —…
(Kitco News) – Gold prices saw another choppy week, as renewed Middle East uncertainty and bargain-hunting failed to offset pressure from elevated Treasury yields, a resilient U.S. dollar, and fresh evidence that the Fe…
Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter?
There is an FX sting in the tail as well. If Japanese investors are trimming exposure to European debt, EUR/JPY starts to matter as more than a conventional rate-spread trade. It becomes a possible capital-flow tell, wh…
It is a privilege to be here in Tallinn to deliver this lecture in memory of Professor Ragnar Nurkse. Widely regarded as one of the intellectual fathers of the post-war Bretton Woods system, his work showed how external…
Actions by advanced economies to limit rising government bond yields are unlikely to be durable without additional policy change or a material economic slowdown—but the first is unlikely and the second is unwanted.
Three themes have been shaping portfolios through the summer: politics; bond yields; and (inevitably) AI.
Precious metals investors are watching market conditions closely as gold and silver hover at pivotal price points. While both metals have already posted impressive gains, multiple converging factors suggest we may be wi…
TOKYO - Tokyo stocks fell on October 2, with the Nikkei 225 closing at 68,309, down 647 points, as investors took profits after the previous day’s sharp rally and turned cautious ahead of U.S. employment data, rising gl…