BoJ Summary of Opinions: Member says appropriate to keep raising rates in line with economy, price
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the September monetary policy meeting, with the key findings noted below.
Currencies
GBP/USD Outlook Hinges on Fed Hike Risks and BoE Tightening Signals
The US dollar (USD) emerged as the go-to safe-haven asset in 2022, supported by an aggressive tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The central bank ratcheted up the target interest rate from 0.25%…
U.S. dollar sees best month since June on hawkish Fed, U.S. Treasury bond rout
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said Thursday that investors are right to expect another interest-rate increase before year-end, a signal that arrived as a selloff in US government debt pushed long-term…
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Monthly outlook mixed, daily chart remains bearish
EUR/USD remains on the defensive on Wednesday as a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) weighs on the pair, leaving the Euro on track for a loss of more than 2% in September. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.…
ECB’s Schnabel says yields surge could cool inflation pressures
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel said Wednesday that high costs are passed through to consumers more quickly when the economy is resilient.
ECB’s Lagarde warns France needs a credible path to rein in debt
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that France’s debt situation is “serious at 120% of GDP and without a path to lowering it.”
Gold can’t catch a PCE break as long US yields keep climbing
Gold prices (XAU/USD) retreated on Wednesday, down 0.6%, after US inflation data came in above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% goal but below estimates, prompting investors to price in a less hawkish central bank than ex…
EUR/USD: Measured ECB tightening to support Euro – TD Securities
TD Securities' Macro Research team expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue a measured tightening cycle, delivering a final 25bp hike in December and taking the deposit rate to 2.75%, which they see as mildly…
WTI set for monthly gain amid US-Iran stalemate
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rebounds on Wednesday and remains on track for a monthly gain of around 5.5%. The lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz keeps geopolitical risks elevat…
Forex Today: Fedspeak, Jobless Claims and ISM data steal the show
The US Dollar (USD) has traded with marginal gains, coming under pressure following daily tops near 101.50 as investors evaluated softer-than-expected PCE data in August and trimmed some bets on extra tightening by the …
EUR/GBP: Range set to persist – Rabobank
RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets’ FX Strategy team assesses EUR/GBP in light of UK politics, growth and monetary policy. They note the Pound’s recent support from stronger UK GDP, but expect GBP bulls to stay cau…
China: Targeted support and cautious stabilization signs – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts note China has unveiled targeted support measures, including a 25bp cut to the PBoC’s PSL rate and expanded relending quotas for innovation, technology, agriculture and small businesses. Mortga…
Euro finds support as softer US PCE data prompts traders to trim Fed rate-hike bets
EUR/USD holds modest gains on Wednesday as traders assess the latest economic data from both sides of the Atlantic. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1363, up 0.20% on the day, after touching 1.1312 on Tu…
Japanese Yen advances as US PCE shifts Fed rate hike bets toward December
USD/JPY falls 0.30% on Wednesday and trades around 156.80 at the time of writing, as the US Dollar (USD) comes under selling pressure following softer-than-expected United States (US) inflation data.
Mexican Peso: Carry trade unwind risks into Q4 – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux warns that one defining September theme in EM has been a sharp unwind in carry trades, particularly in the Mexican Peso, which is down 6% on spot this month.
EUR/USD: Range view holds as Dollar doubts grow – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank argues EUR/USD is likely to hold within its 1.13–1.20 yearly range rather than break lower, pushing back against consensus Dollar bullishness. The bank cites resilient global growth, peak USD yield support…
US Treasuries: Curve steepens with long yields at cycle highs – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid notes a mixed US Treasury session, with 10-year and 30-year yields holding or extending post-2000s highs while the 2-year falls.
Softer Australia CPI but RBA still hawkish – Rabobank
Rabobank’s day-ahead section highlights Australia’s August CPI as slightly softer, with headline inflation at 0.4% m/m and 4.0% y/y, and trimmed mean at 0.2% m/m and 3.6% y/y. Earlier in Q3, the RBA delivered another ra…
Gold firms as softer US PCE inflation cools October Fed hike bets
Gold (XAU/USD) trades modestly higher on Wednesday, consolidating the previous day’s gains after recovering from a seven-week low touched on Monday.
Indonesian Rupiah gains on robust Chinese PMI data, budget assurance
USD/IDR extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 17,860 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) gains strength, driven by improving market sentiment …
US Dollar: Coin flip for October rate hike – DBS
DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow assesses USD Rates ahead of the October FOMC meeting, noting investors see a near-even chance of a back-to-back Fed hike.
Pound: Stronger UK growth and reverse-Brexit risk – MUFG
Lee Hardman at MUFG reports the Pound is consolidating near year-to-date lows against the Dollar despite resilient UK growth, with Q1 and Q2 GDP both revised higher and BoE staff upgrading Q3 forecasts. Hawkish comments…
USD/JPY: Offered tone with key 155–158.20 range – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s FX team reports USD/JPY trading between 156.38 and 157.52 overnight, with the pair mildly offered on dovish New York Federal Reserve President John Williams comments and fiscal half‑end repatriation f…
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Tests 157.00 support after slipping below nine-day EMA
USD/JPY loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 157.10 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair is moving sideways within a symmetrical triangle, which indicates a consolidation phase wh…