Sunday, 1 November 2026
Independent coverage of global markets, trade and finance
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Thursday, trading around the 101.70 region during the Asian session. The index, however,…
The USD/JPY pair holds steady above the 158.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday, extending its consolidative price action witnessed since the beginning of this month amid a combination of diverging forces. Trad…
USD/CAD extends its losing streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 1.4040 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair experienced downward pressure as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained…
Commerzbank’s Lay and Hao highlight Taiwan’s record export orders driven by AI-related ICT and electronics, supporting a robust export-led expansion into Q4. The Central Bank of the Republic of China sees a sustained te…
Standard Chartered’s Dan Pan expects Banco de la República to deliver a final 25bps rate hike at the 30 October meeting, citing a positive output gap, high Oil prices and El Niño-related inflation risks. Pan notes susta…
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman reports that Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% for a fourth meeting, even as IDR weakened slightly following MSCI’s downgrade consultation. BI expects the cur…
Stats NZ's third-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes at 21:45 GMT on Wednesday, with NZD/USD just under its 50-day average and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) deciding on October 28. The pair trades just abo…
MUFG’s Michael Wan notes stabilising global risk sentiment but highlights growing concerns over sustainability of the AI trade and its spillover to FX markets. He expects 2027 to be more challenging for risk assets, wit…
The Mexican Peso (MXN) weakened for the second straight day on Wednesday, down more than 1.49% against the US Dollar (USD), as the US-Iran conflict continues to underpin Oil prices and increases the chances that the Fed…
Geoff Yu at BNY Mellon argues that Hungary has become a positive fiscal outlier in CEE, front‑loading consolidation to pursue Eurozone entry by 2030.
Nomura’s UK budget preview expects Chancellor Healey, at his first budget on 28 October, to allow fiscal headroom to fall to around £15bn. Following September public finance data, the cash deficit is no longer surprisin…
James Smith at ING highlights that UK inflation pressures remain concentrated in energy, with food and services inflation surprisingly subdued. Headline inflation printed 3.5% in September and is expected to peak near 4…
Geoff Yu highlights that Polish bonds are under-owned compared with Hungarian paper, with holdings having halved as Eurozone steepening and fiscal risks weighed on performance. He argues that potential fiscal reform and…
ING’s James Smith expects the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates in November and February as a precaution against second-round inflation effects, even as evidence of broader spillovers from higher energy pric…
Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team outlines US political tail risks ahead of the 3 November midterm elections. Early voting is underway in over 40 states and prediction markets still favor Democrats retaining control of…
We have published new scenarios for oil and gas prices based on recent developments in the Gulf. Here, we discuss the implications for interest rates and FX. Our baseline continues to assume rate cuts by the Fed and no …
Silver (XAG/USD) declines on Wednesday, trading around $57.50, down 0.89% at the time of writing. The precious metal remains under pressure as rising United States (US) Treasury yields and a modest recovery in the US Do…
France’s ballooning debt, coupled with social unrest getting out of control, is posing a perfect storm in the bond market, and boosting the yield of the 10-year Obligation Assimilable du Trésor (OAT) to levels above 5% …
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank highlights that political and rating risks in France, plus cautious European Central Bank (ECB) expectations, weigh on the Euro (EUR) but are largely priced in. Markets now see an ECB hike …
Deutsche Bank anticipates around 25–30 policy measures in the Autumn Budget, with modest consolidation and backloaded tax increases. A higher bank surcharge, online marketplace VAT collection and dividend tax hikes are …
ING’s Francesco Pesole expects New Zealand’s 3Q CPI to slow to 3.8%, broadly matching consensus and slightly under the RBNZ’s projection, with any upside surprise reinforcing expectations of an October rate hike. Market…
Societe Generale analyzes USD/ZAR after its rebound above the 200-DMA, with an interim high near 16.75 and a current pullback towards 16.37. The bank stresses the importance of the pair holding above the 200-DMA, noting…
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes United Kingdom (UK) September Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised to the upside, pushing British Pound (GBP) higher against both the Dollar and Euro. Haddad sees a 25 bps Ba…
The British Pound (GBP) trades 0.1% higher at around 1.3395 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The British currency strengthens as hotter-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Cons…