Rates Outlook: Growth Disappointments Would Still Build a Bullish Case
IREN stock forecast 2030 through AI capacity, power, dilution, margins, contract durability, and long-term infrastructure risk.
Bonds & rates
The Long Bond March Is Rewriting the Old Market Playbook
The post-crisis era trained markets to treat exceptionally low bond yields as normal and anything approaching 5% as a threat. History suggests the opposite. The US 10 year yield may be higher than at almost any point in…
Historically Tight Credit Spreads Face a Test as Rates Rise
At the turn of the year 2025-26, economic growth surprised on the upside while financial market sentiment remained strong despite high uncertainty. The war in the Middle East is now putting this resilience to the test. …
Rates Outlook: A Short Sigh of Relief
The prospect of a peace agreement between the United States andIran is fueling optimism across global financial and commodity markets. At the center of attention is the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important…
Global Bond Markets at a Tipping Point
A historic bond issuance frenzy driven by the artificial intelligence arms race is pushing the global investment-grade bond market to its limits. On July 13 local time, US semiconductor stocks and AI concept shares suff…
Rates Outlook: So How Bad Could This Whole Thing Get?
At the end of one chaotic year and the threshold of another that could be equally turbulent, Hawaiʻi’s people, institutions and economy remain fairly resilient, though vulnerable to developments beyond its borders. The …
Bond Yields Rocket to 2-Decade High as Global Selloff Deepens
Global stocks came under renewed pressure on Tuesday, with technology shares bearing the brunt of selling as investors braced for a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance on inflation, even as oil prices continued their…
Rates Outlook: Curve influencers
Sam Azzarello: What's next for markets and the global economy after a year defined by escalating tariffs, persistent geopolitical tensions, and the rise of artificial intelligence across industries?
A Tale of 2 Yield Curves: Treasury Signals Clash on the Outlook
The bond giant's CIO for non-traditional strategies says Treasury yields look attractive and the Fed will hold rates steady through year-end, putting Pimco squarely at odds with futures markets pricing in a coin-flip ch…
10-Year Treasury Yield Eyes 5% as Rate Hike Risk Builds
This is going to be a fairly important week for markets, given the amount of economic data coming and where rates closed. On Friday, the two-year moved up by almost 13 basis points and the ten-year by nearly six, follow…
Warsh Guides Forward Without Forward Guidance
Editor's Note: At 10 PM Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, marking his first address at this prominent annual gathering sin…
Rates Outlook: Why 4.75% Is a Natural Fit for the 10-Year Yield
The 10Y gilt yield hit new highs on the back of inflation and political risks, but investors should not ignore the role of the Bank of England’s QT in this. We estimate the 2s10s GBP curve steepened by 60bp more than th…
A Mixed Year for Bonds Ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, scheduled for August 27-29, represents one of the most closely watched central banking events of the year. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynot…
Treasury Raises the Stakes in a Battle to Cap Long‑Term Yields
Normally quiet, the bond market can occasionally send warning signals loud enough to hit stock markets worldwide and even grab the attention of U.S. presidents and other world leaders
Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Puts Bond Yields on Notice
The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, scheduled for August 27-29, represents one of the most closely watched central banking events of the year. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynot…
Crowded Out: The AI Boom Is Reshaping Bond Markets
Southeast Asia's trade-oriented economies are facing a confluence of global trade shocks. The Trump administration in the United States has imposed punitive tariffs while depressed domestic demand in China has led to a …
Buybacks Vs. Bond Bears: The High‑Stakes Standoff Continues
The brinkmanship between the U.S. government and the bond market continued on Thursday following the Treasury Departmentâs announcement the day before that it would double repurchases of longer-dated Treasuries in a b…
Normal Interest Rates: What the Debt Panic Gets Wrong
A 5% long bond isn’t the crisis, it’s the receipt, and the fifteen years when money was free did far more damage to growth than normal interest rates ever will.
Treasury Buybacks Put Bond Market Liquidity Front and Center
August 20, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT. Samsung Electronics is preparing a shareholder-return programme worth more than 100 trillion won, or about $71.75 billion, according to Korean media cited by Reuters. The plan is expected …
3% Real TIPS Yields: Boring but Valuable
Investors face a challenging environment during the second half of 2022, needing to navigate rising interest rates, high inflation and resurfacing geopolitical risks. In the near term, gold will likely remain reactive t…
Long-End Risks, ECB Conviction and UK Data Tests
Lower Fed hike odds have calmed front-end USD rates, but long-end Treasuries remain vulnerable to higher real yields, fiscal supply pressure and yen spillovers. In Europe, markets remain focused on a September ECB hike,…
Lacy Hunt Turns Bearish Bonds: Studying His Reversal
Economist Lacy Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business. Recently, he made a surprising U-turn on his bullish stance. The following paragraph opens his Second Quarter Review an…
10‑Year Yield Premium Rises on Inflation Risk and Fed Uncertainty
On July 15, 2026, the source for Figure 1 was updated from FRB-NY to Federal Reserve Board.
Rates Outlook: Tricky Relative Value Amid Geopolitics
Eastspring’s Multi Asset Portfolio Solutions team remains tactically constructive on global equities, favouring the US over Europe, but with clear restraint amid unresolved tensions. On fixed income, the team is neutral…